On Friday (November 18), the market fell more or less, and energy and chemical products fell sharply. By the end of the afternoon, PVC was blocked, coking coal fell 4.13%, power coal, propylene, ethylene and iron ore fell more than 2%, rubber, coke, Shanghai tin, manganese silicon, gold and silver fell more than 1%, rubber plate rose 4.33%, rapeseed rose 2.78%, Shanghai aluminum, Dalian, ferrosilicon and methanol rose more than 1%.

Recently, the national development and Reform Commission has taken multiple measures to control coal prices. On the basis of releasing advanced production capacity and increasing production, it has interviewed large coal enterprises, matched relevant enterprises to sign long-term agreements, and then started to increase transportation capacity, reflecting the determination of the state to regulate coal prices.

The basic plane inclines to the air

First, there are obvious signs of inventory recovery, and supply side is short. With the further release of high-quality production capacity and the increase of transportation capacity, coal inventory has begun to pick up. According to the inventory survey data of coking coal in 50 sample steel plants and 100 independent coking enterprises conducted by our iron and steel network, as of October 27, the total inventory was 11.5774 million tons, an increase of 328200 tons and 2.92% on a month on month basis compared with the previous week. From this point of view, coking coal inventory is gradually picking up. It is expected that when the transportation capacity is increased in place, the inventory recovery will be more obvious.

Second, the profit of steel mills has declined and production has been reduced, while the demand side is negative. At present, the price of coke has accounted for more than 35% of the cost of screw steel, only 20% at the beginning of the year. The profit of the steel plant has been constantly compressed, many steel plants have been in deficit, and the operation rate of blast furnace has further decreased. In addition, on November 4, the production of Tangshan was limited, the sintering production of steel enterprises in Tangshan was stopped, the coking time of coking plant was extended to 48 hours, the demand for coal coke would be eased, and the demand end was negative.

Under the above situation, it is expected that the inventory of coking coal and Coke will rise further, the operating rate of blast furnace caused by the decrease of profit of steel plant and environmental protection production restriction will fall, the supply and demand will gradually balance, and the market panic caused by the policy will lead to the correction of coal and coke prices.

OPEC's output reached a new high, crude oil futures in Europe and the United States fell back, and production restriction expectations fell. It is expected that short-term market demand is difficult to be effectively measured. This week, the market will fluctuate at a high level, and there may be periodic adjustment.

As of yesterday, the current price difference is 990 yuan / ton, and the price difference in May and January next year is 330 yuan / ton. From August 12 to now, the spread has been expanding, mainly due to the fact that the decline of spot price in this period is not as large as that of futures. The spread is also widening.

The price difference between PP and LLDPE, whether futures or spot, is shrinking. First, the operating space profit of cross product arbitrage is decreasing, which is mainly caused by the rise of PP price and the fall of LLDPE price.

It is expected that the overall trend of PP in the fourth quarter will be the following, but it will not decline all the way, oscillate or fluctuate, or the fluctuation range will increase. We still need to pay more attention to three points: Petrochemical policy, cost and inventory change. On the whole, it is recommended to short high positions.

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 80.8 million tons of iron ore in October, down 12.45% month on month, up 6.99% year-on-year, which was the second highest in September. From the historical data of the past five years, in the second half of the year, the supply of iron ore will gradually increase, among which the fourth quarter is the peak period of main ore delivery.

According to the historical law, the average daily output of crude steel in China will decline obviously from September, and the decline will last until the end of the year. In most years, the average daily output of crude steel reached the lowest value in December. In November, the steel market entered the traditional consumption off-season, especially in the northern region, steel demand weakened. In addition, due to the shortage of coke resources and the temporary maintenance of some steel plants, considering that the shortage of coke resources has not been eased, and the profit is squeezed, the steel plant's mood of production reduction is rising.

According to Mysteel statistics, as of November 11, the iron ore inventory of 41 major ports in China was 106.84 million tons, down by 1.96 million tons on a month on month basis, the first drop after four consecutive weeks of recovery. In that week, the average daily port clearance of iron ore in 41 major ports in China was 2.732 million tons, up 112000 tons on a month on month basis, the highest since April 29. At the same time, the number of iron ore arriving at the six major ports in the North was 13.525 million tons, an increase of 2.634 million tons on a month on month basis, the highest since December 2002. Based on the above three sets of data, it can be found that after the National Day holiday, the import port inventory has stabilized and returned to the peak of nearly two months, and the recent increase of ships arriving at the port is the main reason for the recovery of port inventory. At present, iron ore supply is at its peak in nearly eight months. With the cold weather, steel consumption has entered the off-season, but the supply of iron ore is increasing, undoubtedly, it is a pressure on the ore price.